what's next for the economy?

let me try my hand at analysing the future of the Singapore economy with my nonsensical ideas, which is after all what every analyst tries to do :p

okays i am quite convinced that firstly the financial sector in Singapore will be the ultimate winner in this entire meltdown of assets and financial sector collapse in US that has seeped to everywhere in the world. it means that there will be a shift in power! but to who? im not fully assured that the flow of the world's finances will be largely to singapore given the presense of regional heavyweight Hong Kong. But of course, more of the money will definitely be coming over to the SEA. hopefully. but of course this is in prolly 10-20 years down the road when people are convinced with the strong and sound fundamentals the financial sector in this 'twin towers' possess and not the unsystematic greed that warped the US system.

im equally convinced in the growth of energy and transport in singapore in the next 5-15 years with transport max-ing out first. why? check out the freaking lines that are going to be dug in singapore. the whole city area will be opened up and fitted with the crawling machines that are obviously needed to relieve the congestion (that is already building up) . the LTA plans to finally overhaul the stupid transfer penalty(some call it rebate which obviously isn't) whenever one switches mode of public transport will definitely win more people over. i am also convinced with the roar in fuel costs again due to the dwindling supply of oil that is expected to last only another 30 years. this is an added impetus for people to switch to public transport! hoho. and this time, the LTA has become smarter, opting for 3 carriage trains rather than the 6 carriage ones so they have labelled the new lines such as the circle line as medium capacity lines. tat is clearly a much better idea than the loss making NEL. rub ur hands in further glee that SMRT is going to run the circle line as that is added proper expertise and marketing.
the power market in singapore is undergoing an overhaul to inject competition and move away from the natural monopoly. i suddenly feel so knowledgeable cause i took this elective on energy market in modern society in sch! the govt usually pushes for wonderful stuff to happen further and it only means that this development is well poised and supported financially and technically to reap dividends. when that happens, just like the newater shit, we will have another world class product to boast of and ta-da the whole world converges upon us to learn about it! but don't bet on this power stuff to reach those highs of hyflux and newater because the US is still ahead of us in that aspect and our...energy market issnt really big after all. but if hyflux can do it, it could be anyone's guess!

the aero sector, which is close to heart, is probably the other up and coming industry in singapore but i am not convinced about its possibility. given this downturn, it is already affecting the air industry heavily and it should take awhile before the travel sector goes up again. by then, the airlines are still absorbing much of the losses of current and a possible fuel rise will creep in! it really depends on the determination of the govt to push this sector that is seen to be wavering now.

construction will pick up especially in the region because of rise of china and vietnam that has gains mitigated by rise in raw material costs.

as for the down guys, my guess is the pharmaceuticals because they are going to form the just-there sector in the economy and no longer yields that great interest and emphasis.


woah. i sound so knowledgeable :) but what i actually did was to piece everything together after reading articles and searching companies up for few hours in the afternoon today and through daily newsreading. okay but i am quite determined now that while my interest lies with looking at companies, balance sheets and the economy, it shud not be my long term job else everyone will suffer! having said that, the sgx mid-term scholarship looks reallly tempting. tempting. hmms, but for now, it is a miss for me.